环境规制与中国外商直接投资变化——基于DEA多重分解的实证研究

中国经济进入“新常态”,产能过剩和环境污染问题日益突出,国际投资环境不容乐观,“供给侧结构性改革”为中国经济“新常态”下的必要举措。本文探索环境规制下我国FDI变化的影响因素,通过FDI的子向量距离函数定义“环境规制生产技术”和“非环境规制生产技术”,以此构造环境规制的成本效应,测度中国30个省份1999-2015年的环境规制成本,并在此基础上对实际FDI的变化进行分解。本文的主要结论有:2001年后,中国各省份的环境规制成本呈现整体上升趋势,东部地区的环境规制效果最为明显;环境规制下,中国各省份的实际FDI增速先加快后减缓,2015年之前,第二产业对FDI的吸引力最强,2014年开始,第三产业对FDI的吸引显著增强,“供给侧结构性改革”初显成效,促进了我国的产业结构优化升级。反事实检验显示导致各个时期FDI变化的影响因素不尽相同,但随着改革开放的力度不断加大,全要素生产率和产业结构对FDI分布的影响显著增强。     

The socio-economic determinants of COVID-19: A spatial analysis of German county level data

The study explores the association of socioeconomic, demographic, and health-related variables at the regional level with COVID-19 related cases and deaths in Germany during the so-called first wave through mid-June 2020. Multivariate spatial models include the 401 counties in Germany to account for regional interrelations and possible spillover effects. The case and death numbers are, for example, significantly positively associated with early cases from the beginning of the epidemic, the average age, the population density and the share of people employed in elderly care. By contrast, they are significantly negatively associated with the share of schoolchildren and children in day care as well as physician density. In addition, significant spillover effects on the case numbers of neighbouring regions were identified for certain variables, with a different sign than the overall effects, giving rise to further future analyses of the regional mechanisms of action of COVID-19 infection. The results complement the knowledge about COVID-19 infection beyond the clinical risk factors discussed so far by a socio-economic perspective at the ecological level.     

On the direct and indirect effects of the Great East Japan earthquake on self rated health through social connections: Mediation analysis

The Great East Japan Earthquake created health hazards for many people. Using Panel Data gathered in Iwanuma city, Japan, at two points in time (in 2010 before the quake, and in 2013 after the quake), we found that the high degree of housing damage negatively affected victims’ self rated health (SRH) (direct effect), and decreased the levels of their social connections, which in turn also had a harmful effect on their SRH (indirect effect). We also found that although the direct impacts of earthquakes disappear relatively quickly, the harmful indirect effects associated with a decrease in social connections are slower to dissipate. We conducted a first-difference two-step GMM estimation to consider the possible problem of endogeneity. The results support the above conclusion, and show that in the short-term, the indirect impacts of the earthquake accounted for 55 % of all the impacts experienced.     

Cluster Analysis for mixed data: An application to credit risk evaluation

Credit risk is one of the main risks faced by a bank to provide financial products and services to clients. To evaluate the financial performance of clients, several scoring methodologies have been proposed, which are based mostly on quantitative indicators. This paper highlights the relevance of both quantitative and qualitative features of applicants and proposes a new methodology based on mixed data clustering techniques. Indeed, cluster analysis may prove particularly useful in the estimation of credit risk. Traditionally, clustering concentrates only on quantitative or qualitative data at a time; however, since credit applicants are characterized by mixed personal features, a cluster analysis specific for mixed data can lead to discover particularly informative patterns, estimating the risk associated with credit granting.     

Light at the end of the tunnel: Visitors' virtual reality (versus in-person) attraction site tour-related behavioral intentions during and post-COVID-19

Consumer behavior is changing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, thus compelling attraction sites to find new ways of offering safe tours to visitors. Based on protection motivation theory, we develop and test a model that examines key drivers of visitors' COVID-19-induced social distancing behavior and its effect on their intent to use virtual reality-based (vs. in-person) attraction site tours during and post-COVID-19. Our analyses demonstrate that visitor-perceived threat severity, response efficacy, and self-efficacy raise social distancing behavior. In turn, social distancing increases (decreases) visitors' intent to use virtual reality (in-person) tours during the pandemic. We find social distancing to boost visitors' demand for advanced virtual tours and to raise their advocacy intentions. Our results also reveal that social distancing has no effect on potential visitors' intent to use virtual reality vs. in-person tours post-the pandemic. We conclude by discussing vital implications that stem from our analyses.     

Social servicescape’s impact on customer perceptions of the hospitality brand – The role of branded social cues

This research examines how the social servicescape (i.e., employee-customer, employee-employee and customer-customer) impacts brand-related outcomes via branded social cues. Informed by theories related to cue consistency and conceptual fluency, results from three experimental studies conducted across sectors and scales of hospitality businesses (i.e., luxury hotel, high-end restaurant and limited-service hotel), indicate that branded social servicescape cues have direct, indirect and interactive effects on brand-related outcomes. In luxury contexts, when the brand’s personality is absent in employee-customer social cues, the negative effects were buffered if brand personality is reflected in employee-employee social cues. Conceptual fluency mediated the relationship between branded employee-customer social cues and brand-related outcomes, which was moderated by branded employee-employee social cues. Conceptual fluency also mediated the relationship between branded customer-customer social cues and brand-related outcomes. This research sheds light on how hospitality firms can leverage branded social cues to enhance customer evaluation of the hospitality brand.     

Network structure,portfolio diversification and systemic risk

We investigate the effect of portfolio diversification on banking systemic risk, where the network effect is incorporated. We analyze three kinds of interbank networks, namely, random networks, small-world networks and scale-free networks. We show that the effect of portfolio diversification on banking systemic risk depends on interbank network structures and shock types. First, systemic risk increases first and then reduces with the increase of the level of portfolio diversification in the case of the individual shock. Second, in the case of the systemic shock, systemic risk reduces with the increases of the level of portfolio diversification. Third, banking systems with scale-free network structures are the most stable, and those with small-world network structures are the most vulnerable.     

海外高层次人才创新创业政策研究:政策工具与创新创业过程视角

在全球人才流动加速的知识经济时代，中央和地方政府相继颁布了一系列鼓励海外高层次人才创新创业的政策。通过构建政策工具—创新创业过程二维框架，以浙江省“九五”至“十三五”期间颁布的海外人才政策为研究对象，采用内容分析法和扎根理论编码进行统计分析。研究发现：浙江省海外高层次人才政策数量增长迅速，从“十五”至“十三五”开局之年政策数量呈明显上升趋势;政策发文主体较多，但协调性较弱，浙江省财政厅是重要联合发文主体;从政策工具维度而言，供给类和环境类政策过溢、需求类政策偏少;创新创业准备阶段缺乏环境型政策，起步阶段缺乏供给型政策，发展阶段缺乏需求型政策。最后，提出优化海外高层次人才政策的对策建议。     

中国金融系统风险溢出效应研究——基于溢出指数和波动溢出网络

文章基于溢出指数和波动溢出网络方法，从静态和动态分别度量我国金融系统不同子市场间的风险联动水平及变动趋势。研究结果表明，我国金融系统风险溢出效应整体水平较高，各市场间联动性较强；市场内部滞后效应大于市场之间溢出效应，两两有向溢出效应具有强不对称性；作为我国金融系统的风险中心，货币市场始终处于风险溢出方，但在金融危机时期，其对外风险溢出效应相对减弱，而大宗商品市场、资本市场、房地产市场等其余市场的风险溢出效应相对增强。值得注意的是，当前我国金融系统整体风险溢出水平较高，市场间风险相关性较强，需要进一步加强系统性风险的监测与防范。